Edge alerts · ensemble flagged
Manage →◆ 4 MIN AGO · HIGH CONFIDENCE
Senate control: Democratic Party
EDJE 67% · Market 62% · edge +5.0 bps · all 4 models agree
◆ 11 MIN AGO · HIGH CONFIDENCE
2028 Dem nominee: Gavin Newsom
EDJE 22% · Market 16% · edge +6.0 bps · 3/4 models
◆ 32 MIN AGO · MED CONFIDENCE
World Series: Tampa Bay
EDJE 42% · Market 38% · edge +4.0 bps · 2/4 models
◆ 1 HR AGO · MED CONFIDENCE
Oscar Best Picture: The Black Ball
EDJE 23% · Market 19% · edge +4.0 bps · 3/4 models
Shadow portfolio · open positions
Full view →YESChiefs cover vs Jaguars
+$120
$500 · entered 66¢
YESNewsom · 2028 Dem nom
+$152
$400 · entered 16¢
YESFed December hold
+$42
$300 · entered 72¢
NOOscar Best Pic · Odyssey
−$27
$200 · entered 47¢
◆ YOUR CALIBER
Rookie
◆ 25 PREDICTIONS TO ANALYST · 11 TO GO
Watchlist
+ Add →Senate control 2026
◆ KALSHI · $69.4M vol
62%
2028 Dem nominee
◆ KALSHI · $244M vol
16%
World Series 2026
◆ KALSHI · $132M vol
62%
Oscar Best Picture
◆ KALSHI · $9.4M vol
47%
Fed December cut
◆ POLYMARKET · $2.1M vol
72%