How we work.

EDJE is an independent prediction market analytics publisher. These are the sourcing, citation, correction, and responsible-publishing standards we hold ourselves to on every market and every whitepaper.

Sourcing

Primary sources only for quantitative claims

Every number that appears in an EDJE forecast — polling averages, point spreads, injury reports, line movement, box office receipts, earnings beats — is cross-checked against a primary source before publication. Perplexity's citation layer runs the first-pass verification; a human editor runs the second.

What counts as a primary source

• Official government data (BLS, Treasury, FEC, state election boards)
• Regulated public filings (SEC EDGAR, 8-K, 10-K, 10-Q)
• Market operators themselves (Kalshi, Polymarket public order books)
• League and team official statistics
• Named reporters at established outlets (we cite the reporter, not the aggregator)

What does not

Anonymous X accounts, meme pages, unverified screenshots, AI-generated quotes attributed to real people, and any source whose primary business is prediction market promotion.

Model citation

EDJE research is produced by a four-model AI ensemble (Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity) reconciled through a trained game-theory engine. When model output is material to a forecast, we disclose it. We do not pretend to be an entirely human newsroom, and we do not pretend to be entirely algorithmic.

Direct quotes from a specific model, when used, are labeled with the model name. Reasoning chains and probability estimates are attributed to the ensemble, not to any individual model.

Conflicts of interest

• EDJE does not take positions in any prediction market we cover.
• EDJE employees and contractors are prohibited from trading on markets we cover for 48 hours before publication of research that could move those markets.
• EDJE accepts affiliate commission from Kalshi and Polymarket. Affiliate links are visually distinguished from editorial content.
• EDJE does not accept payment, gifts, or sponsored placements from candidates, campaigns, political action committees, sportsbooks, teams, studios, or any other party whose outcome is a tradeable market.

Corrections

If we publish a factual error, we correct it with a dated note at the top of the affected whitepaper. The original error remains visible underneath — struck through, not deleted. If an entire forecast turns out to be wrong, we leave the forecast published and add a resolution annotation showing the final outcome and the delta from our call.

If a correction materially changes a forecast or recommendation, we reissue the research note with a new publication date and link back to the original.

Responsible publishing

Prediction markets are legal in the United States under CFTC oversight (Kalshi) and operate in a less-regulated space elsewhere (Polymarket). EDJE research is educational. We publish calibrated probabilities and research notes — we do not tell any individual reader what to bet, how much to bet, or whether they should bet at all.

If you are experiencing a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER (U.S.) or visit ncpgambling.org. We will remove any EDJE account on request and permanently block it from re-subscription.

Review schedule

These standards are reviewed quarterly and updated as our methodology, model stack, or regulatory environment changes. The "Last reviewed" date at the top of this page reflects the most recent review.

Questions

Standards and corrections: editorial@getedje.com