Will the Fed cut rates at the December FOMC?

● KALSHI LEAN · YES Resolves Dec 17 · 2:00 PM ET

Market YES

68%

Kalshi $0.68

EDJE Model
72%
Preliminary scoring

EDJE Delta

+4.0

Statistical advantage

Expected Value

+6¢

Per $1 wagered YES

01 · DOT PLOT

Projection materials median: 1 cut by year-end. Pre-announced bias.

02 · LABOR

Last 3 NFP prints softening. 150K average vs. 220K prior-year.

03 · INFLATION

October CPI print critical. If <3.0% YoY, model shifts to 75%.

04 · HISTORY

Fed cuts in December when dot plot pre-signals: 83% historical hit rate (n=12).

◆ FULL WHITEPAPER · WEDNESDAY

The full deep-dive drops Wednesday.

Dot plot analysis, Fed speak calendar, inflation trajectory decomposition, historical precedents (n=12 FOMC cycles), position sizing, risk flags.

EDJE scores this market at +4 edge. If the dot plot or CPI print moves the thesis, we'll update inside 60 minutes.